The Duplicitous Lady Luck (and not following a winning plan)

Last night - made the money again. Got my pre-1st-break double through with QQ. 1st interesting hand was with the blinds at 300/600 (antes 75). I'm dealt AQs on the SB with an average stack (5600). The chip leader (32000) is on the BB. It's folded round to me and I raise to 2400, hoping he'd call, which he did. Flop comes AK8. I know a bet here will scare him off, so I check. I wanted him to try and take the pot. However, he checked behind. Turn is another 8. Now I'm worried he has an eight. He may not have bet the flop, fearing a check raise. I check, he follows. A 3 falls on the river. I have 3200 and there's 5550 in the pot. I stick them all-in - if he folds, he folds. Luckily for me, he doesn't. He shows 63, and I double through to 11860, which puts me 21st of 85. Twenty minutes later and the second break finds me with 14,500 chips and 23rd of 55.

Not long after, I get AJ in mid-position. An early player (who only has a little over 2BB left) goes all in. With blinds at 800/1600 and antes of 200, there is 4200 in the pot before EP stuck his chips in. An all-in raise from me will knock out all but a monster behind me, and give me just over 2/1 odds. I'd be 45% against an under pair and about 28% if he's got KK, QQ, AK or AQ. I like the odds so make the push. He shows 22 and flop comes J84 (2 clubs). Turn is J of clubs. I quickly look back at my cards. No club. I look at his pair. One of his twos is a club. River is, of course, another club and I'm down to 10,000 chips - just over 6BB.

I'm now looking for a half decent hand to go all in with - I only have enough chips for two rounds. I get AQ and go all in against an early limper, there's a caller behind me, plus the BB and the limper. BB is all in as well. I have the best hand - the limper has A3, and I'm winning till the river when a paired board splits the pot. So, I'm still in trouble.

I then get this run of cards. 76, J7, A2 (two all ins in front of me), 52, 74, 74 (on BB behind raise and all-in). Absolutely nothing to play. SB - I'm forced all in with 85 and get nowhere.

I'm out in 24th and win £120. The main problem with this tournament is that, with the levels as short as they are, unless you get a massive stack, losing a hand cripples you. You need your luck to hold out all night to win.

Tonight I had another go, and started really well. In the first hour, I flop a set of tens and knock out someone who limped in with 10 2 (suited, mind), and complained when his flopped two pair were no good. More chips come when, after limping with 76s, I raise all in on a flop of 578, and am called by 66. Another 7 gives me trips.

Then I get two hands which show the fickle temperment of Lady Luck. First, I get A9s and limp in. Four see a flop of A54. There's a bet of 300 into the pot of 400 from the SB. I raise all in (hmmm). SB calls and shows 54 for two pair - ouch. However, turn is a 9, giving me a better two pair, and another Ace rubs it in with a full house. I'm up to 5440 and 11th place. Hoorah!

Two hands later, I get J6 and see a four-handed flop of J82 (two diamonds) for free. I bet 450 into a pot of 600 and get one caller. I think he's either got a better Jack or a flush draw. Turn is 10 of spades. I decide he's on a flush draw, so go all in. He calls and shows QT diamonds. River is not a diamond, but it is a Queen and I'm back to just above average.

Cold cards follow and I'm 2285 at the break - 121st of 192. Ten minutes in the second session and I get QQ on the cut off. Folded to me and I raise 900 of my stack of 2700. Earlier, I'd gone all in with QQ when first in and picked up the blinds. In this hand, I wanted to get some chips. This went against the strategy I've been following (with some success) in this competition recently (all in with under 10BB, no small raises). Button called, as did SB. Flop is K33 and SB checks. I go all in for 1785 into pot of 3000 - hoping neither of them has a K or a 3. Unfortunately, button had KT and I'm out in 136th. The annoying thing is that he would probably have folded if I'd gone all in.

Note to self: when you find a strategy that seems to be working, don't go against it without a very good reason.

Still, in my last seven of these tourneys, my lowest finish is 185, whereas in the previous thirteen I'd only twice got in the last 130 - so things have definitely improved.